In the last seven years or so the USA at the strategic,operational and tactical level has became a laughing stock for the world.
Starting from the premise that both USA’s total failure or total success would not be good for world peace,one may state with confidence that the USA needs to seriously re-consider its strategy in both Iraq and Afghanistan and worldwide.
Absurdities surround this war which need to be addressed ? Expensive bombs,munitions, ammunition and logistics are being consumed in killing men who do not deserve so much expense, while some 75 % munitions in any case miss the intended target ? Who is benefitting from all this other than the military defence complex , US and non US military sub contractors and worst of all the vast bulk of logistics sub contractors who are actually Taliban disguised as contractors.
All expenses being paid by the US taxpayer who has nothing to gain and all the profit being made by the military industrial complex and the dirty and greedy defence contractors !
There is a a better way of dealing with Afghanistan and Iraq than spending dollars, every cent of which are a waste and to add insult to injury when the US and NATO forces withdraw one day these guys would chant ” Islam has won ” or more absurd ” Afghanistan is a graveyard of Empires” , pure and unadulterated nonsense ! They would forget the billions of US taxpayersmoney wasted in a country with near zero infra structure and all the profits that Afghan and Iraqi middle men , sub contractors made !
The gist of the problem is that USA is making all the efforts fiscal and material.Russia and China are secretly rejoicong and seeing US resources and morale being drained and soldiers dying for an ungrateful lot .
Oil rich Arab states are relaxing with Saddam eliminated and a reduced Iranian threat.
The present situation is that th USA is making the major effort while its NATO allies less Britain are just pretending that they are also pushing the bogged down vehicle. This is true for both Iraq and Afghanistan. If this continues China and Russia will have the last laugh.
Lets assume that 9/11 was the major historical development done by non US actors,whether a state actor/s or a non state actor/s, taking advantage of which the USA initiated a NEW PLAN BARBAROSSA or a NEW FINAL SOLUTION to deal with the multiple issues of energy resources, Islamic extremism and containing the rise of China and containing Russia’s reassertion and regeneration.
The US policy makers did not accurately assess the responses of their stated and non stated opponents. They failed to give due account to the important aspect that the enemy or other parties non state or state actors have an independent will.
When the USA occupied Afghanistan ,Russia brilliantly adapted.Renewing and putting extra investment in their old Parchami and Mujahid allies in Afghanistan.
Note that the Mujahids had been seriously penetrated and converted by 1985 as far as many sizeable groups were concerned. The Russians contained US influence in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and countered it in Kirgizistan with a rival Soviet base.The Iranians did not budge or blink.
US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan presented a golden target for Islamists in getting a really swift short cut to paradise. The USA did not make use of the smaller ethnicities like Baloch or Kurd.
They continued to rely on the multi ethnic larger states and were decieved and robbed of many billion US dollars.Iraq was not pacified and its situation to date is unstable and unpredictable.
Iran was strengthened in the process with a Shia regime in Iraq.Another Shia regime in Syria,unchallenged and dealt with by the USA and the Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In short the USA landed into a long term strategic stalemate.
A sitting duck target which can be attacked by guerrila forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Its a matter of time that the anti US forces acquire SAM missiles.And once this happens the USA would have to rely on greater troop levels which would be costly and financially very very draining.
In case of Pakistan the USA again failed to achieve any of its objectives.If there were any.Pakistan was not denuclearised.Its non state actors were not pacified.And above all the team which the USA had handpicked in Pakistan failed to deliver.China remains healthy and growing.
Russia is now riposting the USA in Georgia and Ukraine and covertly at many places.
In short in seven years of war and with heavy expenses the USA achieved little.
Afghanistan was not reconstructed but the seeds of its Balkanistaion firmly planted.All US money went to US contractors or smaller contractors from Turkey,Lebanon,South Korea and Afghanistan.Most of the major sub contractors were war lords or to add insult to injury Taliban linked contractors in the south.
Instead of shifting troops to Afghanistan or enlarge the war to Iran or Pakistan the USA needs to re-think its entire strategy.
Some key features of a new strategy may be :–
1-Withdraw from both Iraq and Afghanistan while retaining bases in the Gulf/Pakistan/Saudi Arabia.
2-Instead of fighting the Al Qaeda or Taliban directly, let them have a chance to once again become state actors and present both Russia and China a serious threat.
3-Retain international goodwill by acting as a power which stands for peace.
4-Make the regional actors do the job of making the world a safer place.These include Russia,China,India,Iran,Saudi Arabia,Iraq,UAE etc.
5-Concentrate on the USA mainland and on intelligence assets rather than actual physical combat.
6-Create new client states dependent wholly on US support in the region.
7-Cease wasting a cent in states like Afghanistan,Pakistan and Iraq. Afghanistan should be managed by Russia,China,India,Iran and Pakistan who will countercheck each other and the area would have a permanent stalemate with no victors.Simlarly India and Pakistan will balance each other.Indians fear Pakistani nuclear devices more than USA and its quixotic to think that Pakistani nuclear devices would ever be used against USA.
The most important feature of the new strategy would be withdrawal from both Iraq and Afghanistan. This would immediately lead to a new power struggle with Iraq and Afghanistans neighbour also involved deeply rather than being silent spectators as now.
Any Taliban victory in Afghanistan and any Al Qaeda victory or a Shia victory in Iraq would restart the old Arab Iran struggle in Iraq.Fat oil rich Arab states would be spending all the money instead of the USA.
In Afghanistan also any Taliban resurgence would force Russia ,China,India and Iran to step in and the Taliban would still be contained without a single US cent wasted.
This is a pointless war with no tangible centre of gravity which what to talk of USA , no one can win.So the USA must make the dragons fight the dragons.Regardless of the fact that the dragons are Islamists,Russians,Iranians,Arabs,Indians or Pakistanis.
The USA needs to adopt a strategy which makes the Russians , Iranians,Pakistanis,Arabs and Indians stand on their toes.
The best strategy is to make others fight and if you do fight , fight with minimal expense ! Do the American decision makers have grey matter?! Thats the billion dollar question !
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